this is probably the first semi technical entry am writing and is incidentally the first time am publishing something i found out. (ok i have not found out lot of things still...)
As everyone by now knows there are no girls in my college so I was just consoling myself saying I will most probably going to France(yes EVA GREENE lives there) the next year or the year after that.
Just when I was feeling so euphoric about this a thought struck me. What if I die before this?
Sheesh I would die a virgin I would die without kids, I would die single and even without watching the third IPL.
I sat down and tried calculating the probability I would survive this mishap. The sheer monstrosity of the numbers shook me and make me rethink my priorities.
What is the chance I will survive a day in Chennai?
factors considered:
1)I live in the coastal town of Chennai hence vulnerable to Tsunami and Sea surging due to global warming.
2)I play soccer with great enthusiasm and combined with the pleasant climate of chennai might hence cause death due to sun stroke.
3)I live in CMI where food is bad and(mosquitoes) hence I might contract a lot of diseases like cancer, TB, dengue, SARS, i have started eating eggs hence i can get killed due to bird flu :(
4)Am in a college known for its rigorous curriculum and am a normal teenager so there are these oodles of opportunities to fall into depression
5)I drive my bike like crazy and i also live in T.Nagar where the devil dare not drive.
6)I support Indian team in hockey and Federar on clay and Real Madrid for Champion's league
7)
Wait lets stop here and evaluate,
Data:
5)1150 deaths in a year in chennai. Population of chennai 4.7 million of which only 25 lakh drive 2 wheelers. in there 25 lakhs only about 1% 25,000 people drive as crazy as me.
hence probability i ll die of an accident is 4/365=0.01%
2)sunstroke deaths negligible
3)death due to various medical ailments: 1,60,000 a year in tamil nadu. Implies probability is 0.005%
4)suicide rate among teenagers 148 among 1 million probability is 0.0001
adding all this gives 0.0151 is the probability i will die on a particular day. How rosy?
So the probability i will survive a day is 100-0.0151=99.9849
the probability i will survive 2 years = probability i will survive 730 days
=99.9849^730=89%
there is a 11% chance i will die!!!!!
in 10 years it increases to 43% and in 20 years 73% OH MY GOD
I dont drink nor smoke, i dont have sex and this staggering number.
There is one in a tenth chance i wont graduate. Do you even realise what it means? I would have never experienced college life like a normal teenager, agreed i would have watched a lot more movies, interacted with a lot more bongs, I will know hell lot more physics. But I would be dead.
But wait a minute I have been alive for 20 years which is a miracle by itself. So have many of my friends. Anyways am not THAT depressed because with or without driving crazy bikes, theres a goood chance ur gonna DIE.
Numbers or no numbers, our lives our such we don't know when it will end. Live life when you can have a lotta fun ;) live it like it was your last day on earth ;)
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11 comments:
Machan!! Wth gotten into you! :O
nethi varaikkum nallae thaane da irunthae?? :O :O
Jolly ah irunthoma, bit paarthoma, kai adichoma ne irukanum! :P adha vittuttu.... :-D :-D
LOL, madness :D
kalakitta po!
nice da. I concur completely. BTW; have fun
NOOOOO. What about socio-econimic considerations??
your in IIT..you might get eaten by deer. Last year alone around 35 people got eaten by deer in all IITs put together
Sex is supposed to be good for health da, including it in your statistics might actually improve your chances ;).
(A teenager is once again given a rational reason to walk down the wrong path)
lol!! are u still alive n kickin?? can gues how jobless u r in ur insti!! nice calc btw..the same way can u calc the probablity i get a (new)gf :)
zero
i'd say - there's no god.. there's only probability - and u've written quite a lot on it :)
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